Here is my simplest explanation of the Rangers in May. The bat is that cylindrical slab of wood that the batter holds with both hands, swinging from right to left or left to right with the intent on making contact with the ball. Without contact, no hits. Without hits, very few baserunners. Without baserunners, even fewer runs. Without very many runs, you lose the game.
By most every measure, May was a bust. They went 12-16 for the month against average teams. They went 8 and 8 at home against some tough teams but had an awful 4 and 8 on the road, losing three road series to the Red Sox, Yankees and White Sox.
By the numbers, the Rangers are the third worst offensive team in Baseball at batting with a .222 BA. Worse than every other team in the AL West. Worse than the Pirates and Angels. Only the ChiSox and Rockies are worst-er. And those teams are truly awful. No bats. They are tied with the Rockies for the League worst in Hits per Game at 7.22. No hits. They are fourth worst in Runs per Game at 3.32 and shut out better than once every 10 games. No runs.
The stat heads give Texas high points in fielding, putting them the third best team in the League in Defensive Runs Saved at 36, just shy of the Braves and Rays. Overall, Fangraphs ranked their Fielding Percentage above average at .989. So gloves isn’t the problem.
In fact, about the only reason the Rangers are anywhere close to a .500 ball club is pitching. They rank fourth in the league with a combined 3.18 ERA. One of our two supposed aces, Eovaldi, is fourth best in the league with an ERA of 1.56 and a 2.2 WAR. deGrom has a 2.42 ERA and a 1.1 WAR. The pleasant surprise on the bump is Tyler Mahle who ranks 19th in the League with a 1.64 ERA and a 1.6 WAR. Corbin and Leiter had good and bad days but were decent overall. Rocker stunk while he was up but seems to be pitching well (better?) in the minors. The pen has shined, for the most part.
From a projection perspective, May was brutal to both of us. I predicted 15 wins in 28 games while Evan Grant drank happy juice and guessed 17 wins. The team's hitting implosion caused a 12-16 record for the month and blew the chances for either of us to have a good season of Rangers predictions.
After finishing up with the Cards at home, the month starts with a 9-game road trip through the East and Midwest with stops in Tampa Bay, DC and the Twin Cities. I predicted they would win the first two of those series but that’s up in the air now. Maybe 4 wins in 9 games? After that excursion, it’s home for 6 games with the White Sox and Royals. I’m still optimistic that they can win those two series so going 4 and 2 is still quite possible. Then the Rangers travel to Pittsburgh and Baltimore for 6 games. I predicted 2 of 6 games, even though these teams stink. Our guys come back home to finish the month with the Mariners and O’s. 2 out of 4? With 11 games at home and 15 on the road, and a crummy road record this year, but with trips to play relatively easy teams on the road, Evan and each I predicted an even split of 13 wins and 13 losses for the month. I’ll stick with that pre-season guess for now.
It can’t be said enough times, we have good pitching and fielding, but if we can’t figure out how to get on base and make runs, this season will be over by the All-Star game. There, I said it.
Note: Most stats are from Fangraphs on Sunday morning, June 1st.
With the first month in the books, the Rangers were good at pitching, bad at hitting and okay at defense. Winning 16 games and losing 15 puts them smack-dab in mediocrity and tied with the Athletics for third place in the AL West. I predicted that they would win one more game last month and Evan predicted two more wins. With a small sample size, the Rangers did well against the AL East (6-1) but awful against the AL West (5-16) and NL (5-15).
Eovaldi, Leiter, Mahle, Corbin and deGrom all did well as starters, and were the main (only?) reason we are not at the bottom of the AL West. Rocker was awful and got demoted. Martin (1.84 ERA), Armstrong (2.77), and Milner (2.96) get props for their relief, Webb (4.11) did okay, and Jackson (6.55) mostly stunk as our closer. Church, Dunning, Garabito all washed out to AAA.
Langford and Smith get props for hitting and slugging, and Heim is holding his own this year, but the rest – Semien, and Pederson especially – have been dismal. Texas is in the bottom third of the League in hitting, down there with the Nats, Angels, White Sox, and Rockies. There is no way we will make the playoffs with this batting average.
In a month’s time, the Rangers fell three spots from 8th place in Team WAR[1] to 11th place, and about the same in both pitching and hitting.
This month we play a mix of good and bad teams and a few more home games than away. I predicted 15 wins and 13 losses while Evan guessed 17 wins. Our team is very good at home and crummy on the road so that helps our numbers slightly this month; however, unless they get their hitting in order it will be tough to do better than break-even ball.
From an injury perspective, let’s hope that Carter and Seager return to the lineup and that the bevy of injured pitchers get healthy. Jung and Langford are both injury-prone and their bats are critical to our success.
Overall, Fangraphs[2]and Baseball Prospectus[3]now predict Texas to achieve 83.5 and 86.2 wins respectively, giving us a 49.3% and 62.3% chance, respectively of making the playoffs. That’s a pretty wide swing and I don’t get what BP sees in us short of our reasonably good starting pitchers. I predicted 87 wins and about an even chance to make the playoffs. Given where we are at, I’d pare back the wins a game or two and keep the playoff guess the same.
Go Rangers!
[1] https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=22