Texas Rangers Baseball Blog

 After 40 Games

The Texas Rangers are exactly where my pre-season prediction model put them. For better or worse, they won 19 and lost 21 games, after playing what I called The Ugly: 40 games in 6 weeks with 55% on the road and over two thirds of those games against Contender teams. Obviously, it could have gone worse over that stretch. Here are my takes on the Goods, Not Goods and Maybes:

• Goods – Josh Jung, who ranks near the top of the league in offensive numbers; Duran and Osuna, who aren’t supposed to be everyday players but who play like it; deGrom who is pitching elite most games and Leiter who is holding his own as a starter.
• Not Goods – Josh Smith and Jake Burger who are benched for their offense; Corey Seager who is unimpressive at the plate and just okay defensively; Rocker and Gore who posted ERA’s over 5.00.
• Maybes – Joc Pedersen who occasionally gets a clutch hit but is slashing .227/.336/.330 with only 2 HR’s; Evan Carter who is fielding well and starting to hit.

Up To the All-Star Break

I called the next 56 games The Easy because they are split evenly home and away, and played against mostly easy or middling teams. I am optimistic about May, expecting the Rangers to go 17 and 11, versus Evan Grant’s sad estimate of 13-15. My guess would put the Rangers at 32-27 and possibly in the lead in the AL West at the end of the month. Okay, this might be slightly optimistic, given their recent run; however, the teams they face the rest of this month are the D-backs, Astros, Rockies, Angels and Royals. None of them have a winning record, so I think we have a good shot of winning most games, hence, my initial 17-11 estimate for May. June will be a lot tougher with only 9 out of 27 games at home and several against tough teams. My model estimates a 12-15 record for June while Evan thinks we can learn to win games on the road. I only hope he is right. Scroll down to see our full year projections.

What the Pundits Say

Fangraphs bumped their full year prediction for the Rangers by a game to 82-80 while Baseball Reference added a more wins to their prediction: 86.6-75.4. Both think that Seattle is the team to beat in the AL West and I cannot argue with that. I guessed 82-80 for the year and I’ll stick with that for now. Let’s check again after another month of Baseball.

Go Rangers!

Note: Stats are from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference as of May 11th.

This year the Texas Rangers are in a pretty good place all around. Not great, not crummy, just pretty good. Here’s what I see:

• Four solid starting pitchers and reasonable options for the fifth pitcher slot
• A bullpen that appears to be decent, yet without a clear closer
• Infield and outfield positions that appear to be set
• Pretty good hitting, but hitting is really hard to read in the pre-season
• A couple of options for utility players and the designated hitter
• A rather healthy and fit team overall.

So, looking at the whole season, my “new and improved” prediction model estimates the team will book 82 wins and 80 losses. But when I dig deeper, there’s a bigger story to tell about how this season will go, at least up to the All-Star break.

Show Me Your Method, Boss

Let’s face it, some MLB teams are pretty great, some teams are crummy, and the rest are just trying to make it through the year and into the playoffs. So, looking at the Rangers’ opponents, I stratify the League into three tiers:

• Contenders – 11 teams that are clearly contending for a playoff berth. The Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, Mariners fall into this category.
• Wannabes – 11 teams that have at least a reasonable shot at a playoff berth. The Rangers, Astros, Padres, Rays are good examples.
• Not Happening – 8 teams that should probably plan build up for next year, if at all. The Marlins, Nats, Angels, Rockies and White Sox fit this mold.

Damn the Schedule

Beyond the type of team you see on the field, the MLB gods cast a spell on the Rangers with a make-or-break early schedule. Here’s what I mean. Let’s look at their schedule in three parts:

• The Ugly – 40 games in the first 6 weeks with 55% on the road and over two thirds of those games are against Contender teams. That’s ugly. 
• The Easy – The next 56 games take them to the All-Star break. These games are split evenly home and away, and over 80% of those games are played against Wannabes and Not Happenings. After The Ugly, this section of the baseball year should be Easy. Will that be the case?
• The Finish – The Rangers play their final 66 games in an almost even split across all types of teams and with slightly more than half of the games at home.

It’s pretty obvious that the first 6 weeks will be make-or-break the Rangers. If they can play .500 ball, winning about half their games, it sets them up nicely for the remainder of the season. Likewise, if they are not at least a .500 ball club by the All-Star break, then they will probably not make the playoffs.

What the Pundits Say

Fangraphs predicts the Rangers will have another mediocre year: 81-81. Baseball Reference is more optimistic at 84-78.

Evan Grant is once again the optimist, predicting 86 wins. He admittedly bets on a lot of things going right:

“We’re going to buy into the improved clubhouse culture as an asset that could allow this team to weather the tough start and allow it to optimize when the schedule turns in their favor. But more importantly, we’re buying that more key guys will rebound offensively than won’t. A lot has to go right for this team to get to the postseason, but not everything. We’re betting that the scales tip a little more in favor of positive outcomes. And we’re betting Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford have true breakout seasons.”

Again, my model predicts 82-80, but to me it’s not so much about the entire year as it is about how well they come out of the starting gate and through the first six weeks. Go to the end of this blog to see a month-by-month chart comparing my predictions and Evan's.

Three Scenarios – You Choose

I wish it were clearer, but it’s not. To me, there are three relatively even scenarios for this team by the All-Star break:

• We’re Hot and We Know It – the Rangers do well in The Ugly and continue up to the All-Star Break in similar fashion. 51-45 or better by the break.
• We Suck and We Proved It – The Ugly takes them down and The Easy doesn’t allow a rebound. 45-51 or worse by the break.
• Oh Sh#t Another “Maybe” Year – 48-48 or thereabouts and with plenty of teams doing at least as well.

Let’s hope they are hot, and I’d almost prefer not to live through the pain of another “Maybe” year. Either way, it feels like the first month or so will be very telling.

Go Rangers!

Note: Stats are from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference as of March 24th. Evan’s predictions and quote are from his March 25th DallasNews article.

It’s easy to get excited about any player on a single play. Josh Smith hits a homer. Evan Carter a grand slam. Brandon Nimmo a stand-up triple. As much fun as Spring Training can be, any observation from just four or five games is speculative and fraught with variability, given the small sample size of innings, pitches and at-bats. Still, our overall feeling was that the Rangers looked comfortable in their uniforms this spring and, with the exception of a couple of players, nobody stunk it up. I’ll share some ad-hoc thoughts about each group of positions.

Starting Pitchers

We didn’t see deGrom but we saw Eovaldi pitch 5 innings with so-so placement of the ball and a fastball in the low 90’s. Jack Leiter went a couple pretty good innings then had issues. Mackenzie Gore, our new addition to the rotation, got lit up on Thursday, but it was a windy crazy day, so let’s hope that was a fluke. Kumar Rocker pitched 4.2 innings in two games and gave up 3 ER’s, so the jury must be out on him. Conversely, Jacob Latz has looked pretty solid and probably has the nod for the fifth starter position if the choice had to be made today.

Relief

We saw such a mixed bag of relievers and many were probably working on something around their delivery, speed, position or whatever, so I don’t think there were many conclusions to draw from an inning or so of work. Let’s give them all another couple more weeks.

Outfield

Wyatt Langford played left well, slugged well and fielded fine. We picked up Nimmo to play right, and it felt like he was a good inclusion to the team with hitting, fielding and his banter with the younger guys. This year one big question was with Evan Carter in center. His fielding has always been great but can he hit lefties? Well, with a small sample size we saw Carter hit solidly from both sides, and he appeared healthy, another potential holdover issue from last year. So, it looks like our outfield is set. 

Utility

Sam Haggarty, one of our potential utility players, posted hits and walks and even a homer, which is promising, and while we saw him get caught stealing bases while stretching hits, it’s clear that he still has wheels. There were big questions about Ezekiel Duran coming into camp but we saw him field and hit, so I suppose is chances remain to make the initial roster.

Infield

Jake Berger clearly lost weight in the offseason and looks great fielding on first base, and we saw no issues with his at-bats, especially the dingers he sent out of the park. We saw Josh Smith play a solid second base and hit balls hard, so it looks like it’s a no-brainer that he will be starting there. Seager of course is at short. Josh Jung is hurt so third base is up for grabs at the start of the season and maybe beyond. 

Designated Hitters

With Joc Pederson posting the worst batting average of any major league player with at least 300 at-bats last year, there is clearly a target on his back this spring. And with the inclusion of 37-year-old Mark Cahna in camp, who posted a .212 BA last year in what most thought was the twilight of his baseball career, there’s clearly a chase underway for the DH position. Or possibly more like a slow crawl. Our four days saw Cahna hit and field pretty well, while Joc didn’t hit as well and spent a lot of time waving to people in the stands. Advantage Cahna.

Showing Promise

I liked Michael Otanez on the mound, throwing 97 mph heat. Jakob Junis needs some more time in the minors. I wish I had seen Carter Baumler, who is Rule 5 and must make the team or be sent back to the Orioles. Jonah Bride played third base several of the games and did fine. He also got a solid hit or two. Will they bring him up if Jung is not ready to play? And we saw Willie MacGyer catch on Sunday. While the Rangers will probably carry only two catchers into the season, Mac looks to be ready to come up when he is needed.

The Take

Skip and the team look loose and ready to play. With one or two exceptions, the players who are healthy looked good, and we can only hope the ones who are in the IL can bounce back healthy. Look for a Shameless Prediction of the entire season a couple of days before Opening Day.

Go Rangers!

Note: Stats from FanGraphs as of March 8th.