Texas Rangers Baseball Blog

July Recap

When Rangers fans look back on July, we have to say we are gratified but certainly not content. 

The team went 16-9 for the month, a huge improvement. They batted 18 points better than last month for an average of .252. They ranked third in July in Runs Scored, and increased their OBP by 13 points over last month to .325. In short, hitting improved tremendously while pitching and fielding remained solid. 

For the year, a good July helped to make up for an awful May/June. I predicted 59 wins by now, and Evan Grant guessed a crazy 62 wins, while the actual count at the end of July is 57 wins. This puts them 4 games over .500, 5 ½ games behind Houston, one game behind the Mariners, and next in line to move into a Wild Card spot behind Seattle, Boston and the Yankees. All in all, it’s not a bad place to be considering they didn’t look like a contender a month ago.

Then there’s the trades that occurred in the final hour of last month where the Rangers picked up a starter and relievers for several prospects. No bats, though. Good grabs for us, but you have to give top honors to Seattle for their trades. Houston and LAA also did pretty well. 

August Predictions

August could be a good month for the Rangers. They play 28 games. 15 are at home, including a 3 series home stand. The Rangers play nine games against teams in our division, three each with Seattle, LA and the Sacrasomewhere A’s. For the month of August, Evan and I both predicted 15 wins and that still sound like a good guess.

Bottom Line…

Was the Rangers’ performance in July enough for us to believe that Texas makes the playoffs this year? At this point, the statheads estimate only 84 wins for the season and give the Rangers about a 40% chance to make the playoffs. We are batting better and, with the latest roster upgrades, we should hold onto good pitching at least as much as we’ve seen so far. Can the team continue to hit well? Surely, that is the biggest question, and only time will tell. There are so many maybes and so much variability when it comes to their hitting that it’s just too much for my little mind to digest.

Note: Stats are from Fangraphs on Friday morning, August 1st.

By the Numbers

We are 60% of the way through the season, and the big question is: will the Rangers make the playoffs? Maybe, not probably, and here’s why.

The Statheads estimate the Rangers will win exactly half their games this year, finishing 81 and 81 with about a 20% chance of making the playoffs. Right now, the Rangers are 48-49, and I suppose Texas would have to achieve about 87 wins to make the playoffs, which is exactly what my model estimated in March. It also means that they would have to win about 55% of their remaining games. How hard is that? Well, I added a graph at the end of this blog to show it visually and, admittedly, every year a few games might decide whether a team makes the playoffs. But in practice, it’s much harder than it looks to win even a few more games, hence, the 20% probability from the Statheads.

So, let’s dive a bit deeper in to numbers: hitting, pitching, fielding, intangibles.

The Rangers climbed a couple notches up from the basement of the League in Batting Average to .232 for the year; however, if you look at just June and half of July, they are nearly average with other teams at .247.[1] The Rangers’ Slugging Percentage (.403) is slightly below team averages for the last 6 weeks and On Base Percentage (.323) is above average for that timeframe. In other words, they are now getting more singles and walks than before, but still not quite hitting enough long balls to keep up with the competition. Will this hitting pattern continue or get better? Several players are healthier – for now – Seager, Jung, Carter. A couple are hitting better – Semien and Garcia. Is this enough? Offensively, the team is good enough to be in the hunt but they need to get even better to contend.

Defense has been a very strong suit for Texas, ranking 7th best this year according to FanGraphs. No complaints about defense.

The Rangers’ investment in pitching has proven to be fruitful. deGrom is the 4th best in the League (2.32 ERA), and if you count pitchers with 50 innings or more, Eovaldi looks even better (1.58 ERA). The Bullpen has been about average. Jackson has not proven to be a reliable closer and Garcia has been a bit better but also not consistent. Latz may be the shining star in the pen. All in all, pitching might be okay if they get to the playoffs, but we have seen too many blown saves this year.

There are some intangibles to note. Kevin Pillar, who was DFA’d[2]a few weeks back claimed that the clubhouse is not gelling. Who knows, is Pillar just sour grapes? Is he judging this on the month(s) where most of the team was struggling to hit? Personally, I think there’s enough gel-potential in the clubhouse as long as the team continues to improve. To me the bigger issue is the effect of being good but not good enough to win games. I like to compare a team’s win-rate in one-run games. This year, Texas played 31 games decided by 1 run and their record is 14-17. The team is 3-4 in extra-inning games. So, this tells me that their “luck” in games is at best even, i.e., they are losing slightly more than they are winning due to “luck.” 

The other big strategic question to me is whether the team should shoot for the playoffs this year or punt now and shoot for it next year. My gut says punt, but here are some important data points:

· From May 20th – June 5th the Rangers went 4-11. If you ignore that 5 series stretch that was largely tough teams on the road, Texas’ record is 44-38 or slightly better than the Mariners’ current win/loss ratio. In other words, without that bad stretch, we would be a solid playoff contender.

· The Rangers are good at home but not good on the road, winning only 40% of the time when away. Fortunately, 55% of their remaining games are at home. 

· The next 4 series are against the Tigers, Athletics, Braves and Angels and all games but the last series are in Arlington. If the Rangers do well during this stretch they could be back on pace to go to the playoffs.

· The Rangers have 19 games left to play against the AL West. They are 13-17 against those teams, so they must do better against their division or they will most probably not be a playoff team. 

· This just might be Bruce Bochy’s last year of coaching. Can the team convince Boch to go another year if we miss the playoffs two years in a row? Frankly, I doubt it. 

· July 31st is the date that rosters are locked in, so the choice to either go all in or punt needs to be made in the next 2 or 3 weeks.

Bottom Line…

The Rangers have the pitching and defense right now to make the playoffs. Their hitting improved in the past month, but will it remain or get better, especially slugging? The next three weeks will be very telling. I can’t wait to write the July summary…

[1]MLB batting average is currently .256 for the year.

[2]Designated for Assignment

June Recap

I’m afraid it’s time to admit the obvious. This is not the year the Rangers are going to the playoffs. There, I said it.

Not like it should be a surprise and in a sense, I suppose we should have expected it. After tanking in May, the Rangers played .500 ball in June, just as Evan and I estimated. And they did it the hard way winning 8 of 15 games and 4 of 5 series on the road, but only 5 of 11 games at home and winning only one series against the dreary White Sox. The last three games in June said it all where they lost 3 of 4 extra inning games, each time with plenty of base runners but never enough umph to get runners’ home.

For June, the Rangers remain near the bottom of the list of teams in BA (.234) and BABIP (.277), even though key players turned it around, with Carter and Semien batting an OPS above .900; and Smith, Haggarty and Seager above .750 for the month. The truth of the matter is that Texas is wildly inconsistent in hitting, getting on base, and scoring runs. 

In June, the Rangers pitching was sixth best in the Majors with an impressive 3.61 ERA. Jacob deGrom pitched 32 innings and posted a 1.41 ERA for the month. The rest of the pitchers and relievers put out good innings most days. Pitching is not the problem. It’s hitting and scoring runs. 

July Predictions

July feels like it should be a tough month, but somehow Evan and I were optimistic in our original prediction. After finishing a home stand with the Orioles, Texas goes on the road for three three-game series in San Diego, Anaheim and Houston. After the All-Star break, Texas hosts the hot hot Tigers, the Sacramento’s and the Braves at home. Then they go back to Anaheim to finish the month. Evan and I both predicted a 14-11 month and I pray we knew more then than we do now because it surely feels like 14 wins this month will be a gift.

Bottom Line…

At three games under .500 and 3 ½ games out of the wild card race, I just don’t see Texas getting to the playoffs. Winning our division is a pipe dream with Houston playing really well. Tampa and Toronto seem to have two Wild Card slots locked up, meaning that Texas must best Seattle to win the third one, and we won only 2 of 9 games against them so far this year.

Let’s hope Texas has an okay month while doing its share of house cleaning after the All-star break and up until the July trade deadline.
 

Note: Most stats are from Fangraphs on Tuesday morning, July 1st.

Here is my simplest explanation of the Rangers in May. The bat is that cylindrical slab of wood that the batter holds with both hands, swinging from right to left or left to right with the intent on making contact with the ball. Without contact, no hits. Without hits, very few baserunners. Without baserunners, even fewer runs. Without very many runs, you lose the game. 

By most every measure, May was a bust. They went 12-16 for the month against average teams. They went 8 and 8 at home against some tough teams but had an awful 4 and 8 on the road, losing three road series to the Red Sox, Yankees and White Sox.  

By the numbers, the Rangers are the third worst offensive team in Baseball at batting with a .222 BA. Worse than every other team in the AL West. Worse than the Pirates and Angels. Only the ChiSox and Rockies are worst-er. And those teams are truly awful. No bats. They are tied with the Rockies for the League worst in Hits per Game at 7.22. No hits. They are fourth worst in Runs per Game at 3.32 and shut out better than once every 10 games. No runs.

The stat heads give Texas high points in fielding, putting them the third best team in the League in Defensive Runs Saved at 36, just shy of the Braves and Rays. Overall, Fangraphs ranked their Fielding Percentage above average at .989. So gloves isn’t the problem. 

In fact, about the only reason the Rangers are anywhere close to a .500 ball club is pitching. They rank fourth in the league with a combined 3.18 ERA. One of our two supposed aces, Eovaldi, is fourth best in the league with an ERA of 1.56 and a 2.2 WAR. deGrom has a 2.42 ERA and a 1.1 WAR. The pleasant surprise on the bump is Tyler Mahle who ranks 19th in the League with a 1.64 ERA and a 1.6 WAR. Corbin and Leiter had good and bad days but were decent overall. Rocker stunk while he was up but seems to be pitching well (better?) in the minors.  The pen has shined, for the most part. 

From a projection perspective, May was brutal to both of us. I predicted 15 wins in 28 games while Evan Grant drank happy juice and guessed 17 wins. The team's hitting implosion caused a 12-16 record for the month and blew the chances for either of us to have a good season of Rangers predictions. 

After finishing up with the Cards at home, the month starts with a 9-game road trip through the East and Midwest with stops in Tampa Bay, DC and the Twin Cities. I predicted they would win the first two of those series but that’s up in the air now. Maybe 4 wins in 9 games? After that excursion, it’s home for 6 games with the White Sox and Royals. I’m still optimistic that they can win those two series so going 4 and 2 is still quite possible. Then the Rangers travel to Pittsburgh and Baltimore for 6 games. I predicted 2 of 6 games, even though these teams stink. Our guys come back home to finish the month with the Mariners and O’s. 2 out of 4? With 11 games at home and 15 on the road, and a crummy road record this year, but with trips to play relatively easy teams on the road, Evan and each I predicted an even split of 13 wins and 13 losses for the month. I’ll stick with that pre-season guess for now.

It can’t be said enough times, we have good pitching and fielding, but if we can’t figure out how to get on base and make runs, this season will be over by the All-Star game. There, I said it.

Note: Most stats are from Fangraphs on Sunday morning, June 1st.

With the first month in the books, the Rangers were good at pitching, bad at hitting and okay at defense. Winning 16 games and losing 15 puts them smack-dab in mediocrity and tied with the Athletics for third place in the AL West. I predicted that they would win one more game last month and Evan predicted two more wins. With a small sample size, the Rangers did well against the AL East (6-1) but awful against the AL West (5-16) and NL (5-15). 

Eovaldi, Leiter, Mahle, Corbin and deGrom all did well as starters, and were the main (only?) reason we are not at the bottom of the AL West. Rocker was awful and got demoted. Martin (1.84 ERA), Armstrong (2.77), and Milner (2.96) get props for their relief, Webb (4.11) did okay, and Jackson (6.55) mostly stunk as our closer. Church, Dunning, Garabito all washed out to AAA.

Langford and Smith get props for hitting and slugging, and Heim is holding his own this year, but the rest – Semien, and Pederson especially – have been dismal. Texas is in the bottom third of the League in hitting, down there with the Nats, Angels, White Sox, and Rockies. There is no way we will make the playoffs with this batting average.

In a month’s time, the Rangers fell three spots from 8th place in Team WAR[1] to 11th place, and about the same in both pitching and hitting. 

This month we play a mix of good and bad teams and a few more home games than away. I predicted 15 wins and 13 losses while Evan guessed 17 wins. Our team is very good at home and crummy on the road so that helps our numbers slightly this month; however, unless they get their hitting in order it will be tough to do better than break-even ball. 

From an injury perspective, let’s hope that Carter and Seager return to the lineup and that the bevy of injured pitchers get healthy. Jung and Langford are both injury-prone and their bats are critical to our success. 

Overall, Fangraphs[2]and Baseball Prospectus[3]now predict Texas to achieve 83.5 and 86.2 wins respectively, giving us a 49.3% and 62.3% chance, respectively of making the playoffs. That’s a pretty wide swing and I don’t get what BP sees in us short of our reasonably good starting pitchers. I predicted 87 wins and about an even chance to make the playoffs. Given where we are at, I’d pare back the wins a game or two and keep the playoff guess the same.

Go Rangers!

[1] https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=22

[2] https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

[3] https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/