Pre-season Prediction:
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Okay, time to get going and post my shameless projection for the Texas Rangers baseball season. But first, as seen on social media, a few quick points. Immodesty in bloom, my prediction last year was the best ever. The shameless model estimated 89 wins, well above other pundits, and the Rangers delivered 90 wins, along with, of course, a World Series trophy. This spring, I visited Surprise AZ and got valuable insights into the inner workings of the team and the beer concessionaires, offering a leg up on others who fail to utilize these important statistical parameters. Additionally, I updated both my statistical model and my liquor cabinet with new algorithms and products. Thus, I feel like my model and me are surely the best in the West right now.
So here goes… the model estimates between 89 and 95 wins, with a median of 91 wins this season. I’m guessing that’s good for 2nd place in the AL West and the top Wild Card bid. Another repeat of last year.
How did I come up with this estimate, and how does it compare to the pundits? Well, their estimates range between 81.8 and 91 wins, so I’m clearly on the high end. And I have never seen a team win a tenth of a game, so there’s that. However, @evangrant and I have identical estimates with some differences in August and September games.
There, that’s the scoop. Here’s the rest of the story…
Overall:
I don’t see any holes in this team and plenty of upside in many areas. I cannot recollect this team having so many power points. Having said that, injuries and a crazy combination of old and young players create risk in a bunch of categories. Still, the team has mitigation for most of those risks, making them better than ever, IMO. A playoff contender? Most probably. A second World Series win? Well, the post season is a completely different animal, and the Shameless Model doesn’t do post season, so I can only hope we repeat.
Starting Pitching:
This team shows a roster of 2 serious starting pitchers – Eovaldi and Gray – and 3 other good starters to round out the rotation. I have no worries based on what I saw of this crew in Spring Training. Bradford is in the bullpen and a probable fill-in for any injury to the starting 5. There are worries from others about Dunning as he dropped off a bit at the end of last year; however, in spring training he perfected a new pitch – a fork ball – that was lights out. If that’s not enough, we should get 2 bona fide HOF aces back mid-season from injuries – Scherzer and deGrom. What’s not to like in this scenario?
Bullpen:
We have a solid middle reliever and closer – Sborz and LeClerc. Both looked great this Spring. There’s a bunch of other guys in the ‘pen of varying ages and skills, with some new names recently added. Not perfect but a decent place to be at the start of the season.
Catcher:
Heim is the man, he can hit, and he can play more than half of the games this season. Knizner looked decent this Spring so there are no big holes behind the plate.
Infield:
With Jung and Seager back, along with Semien, I would guess that any other team would give a nut to have those 3 guys on their roster. Lowe is on IL, and all will need some rest, but we have decent options with backups – Duran, Josh Smith, Walsh, and Foscue.
Outfield:
We have 3 crazy good hitters and about that many good fielders. Garcia continues to dominate the back wall when he’s at the plate, he can throw a strike from right field and he worked on the high fast ball. Carver and Langford are simply amazing. Jankowski can run, field and hit fairly well. I didn’t like what I saw from Taveras this spring in center field or at the plate, and he’s only 24, so maybe he can come around or sit occasionally to give the others a chance.
Coaches:
This area is icing on the cake to me and the reason we took the WS trophy last year. Bochy is second to none and Mike Maddux should fix the questions we have with certain pitchers and whether someone is ready to pitch or not on any given day. I’d give the coaching staff a WAR of at least 5.0.
Opponents:
The Astros are supposed to be tough and should win the West this year; however, like last year, I think we have a chance to sneak in ahead of them. The Mariners are purported to be good, and might be great, although they are always a question. We play early games against a bevy of contenders, so it will be tough to be better than a .500 team by the All-Star break. The second half is better, and we supposedly get back our 2 ace pitchers. I like August but not so much September. Simply put, I’ve watched this team choke late in the season too many times. My month-by-month breakdown, along with a comparison to Evan Grant’s projection, is below. We have a lot in common.
Pundits:
Here are the predictions I got on Wednesday morning, March 27th.
Pecota 85.9
Fangraphs 81.8
Team Rankings 88.1
Keith Law (Athletic) 84
Sporting News 82
CoPilot 90
Evan Grant 91
Their websites:
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/team/texas-rangers/projections
https://theathletic.com/5368497/2024/03/27/mlb-predictions-2024-season/
A month-by-month comparison of Wins by Evan and me:
Mark Evan
Apr 16 15
May 15 16
Jun 14 14
Jul 13 14
Aug 19 15
Sep 14 17
Total 91 91
My chat with CoPilot
Question:
How many games will the Texas rangers win in the 2024 season?
Answer:
The Texas Rangers had an impressive 2023 season, winning 90 games and securing their first World Series title. As we look ahead to the 2024 season, there are several factors to consider:
1. Lineup Strength:
2. Pitching Staff:
3. Over/Under Win Total:
4. Prediction:
Let’s root for the Rangers as they defend their title and aim for another successful year on the field! ⚾🏆